I am just watching a replay of Paris-Roubaix and fully drinking in the majesty of the mini-season we just experienced in cycling. The classics — sometimes more specifically the cobbled classics — have always been their own peak event, one of three peaks along with the Tour de France and the World Championships. (Sorry Giro d’Italia.) Only this time the first major, and particularly prominent, peak was specifically the first three Monuments, Milano-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders, and Paris-Roubaix. Because the riders ultimately make the race, and nowhere else this spring will the riders make it like Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar made those three races.

Gonna just toss around a few themes and ideas here…

The headliner is the mere idea that these two riders are going head-to-head. From a historical perspective, it defies a trend three or four decades in the making, whereby the Tour de France overall contenders have foregone the dangerous cobbled races (if not MSR) to save themselves for July. Bernard Hinault invoked himself and Merckx (as one does, if one is Hinault) while praising the World Champ. He could have made the list a bit longer, if he were an expansive sort, which… he is not. But his point stands.

You have to go back 33 years to find another Tour winner in action, that being Hinault’s frienemy Greg LeMond, who rode Flanders and Roubaix four and six times, respectively, and did the MSR-Ronde-Roubaix triple-try in his magical year of 1986. His only podium was in the ’86 MSR, and his fourth place at the unforgettable ’85 Hell of the North leaves no doubt about his toughness. Don’t get me started there, again.

This is a natural segue to Laurent Fignon, who was just as respectful of — and perhaps a bit more successful at — the spring Monuments. Like a true French champion, he rode Paris-Roubaix faithfully later in his career, four times from 1988-92, taking third in his first try, plus three forgettable Flanders appearances and 6 MSRs, with two victories.

And this history tour would not be complete without mentioning Stephen Roche, who rode Paris-Roubaix four straight times at the start of his career, before changing his program to squeeze out some grand tours between knee injuries. He also rode Flanders later on, and MSR regularly, all without notable success. But at least he tried. And at this point, we are back to Hinault’s era. Apologies if any other contenders at the Tour also showed up, but if they rode Roubaix it was rather quietly. And a final apology to King Kelly and the Sheriff, each of whom won a grand tour but their day job was riding the classics.

*****

Returning to Pogačar and van der Poel, their duel is right off the top shelf of great two-up cycling clashes. I seem to remember comparing them already to Boonen-Cancellara, an obvious parallel right down to the rainbow stripes Boonen brought into the affair. There have been other legendary battles; these lumpy, scattered rocks didn’t get famous on their own. But it’s that Tour Guy vs Cobbles Guy that gives it real character. It’s not just big names, it’s the substance, whereby an otherworldly good-at-everything guy tries to take on an all time specialist. Van der Poel rides these races because they are at the heart of his legacy as a super-strongman from the North. Pogačar rides them because van der Poel rides them. They say your victories are only as great as who you beat, and Pogačar is running out of dragons to slay. Beating van der Poel is likely to be at the heart of his legacy.

Like I said, their battle is a three-legged stool at the moment, unless van der Poel takes another run at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, where he was third a year ago, two minutes behind the Slovene. But looking at the tale of the tape, I don’t know why he would. Van der Poel was a mere 14 seconds back of 21-year-old Pogs and winner Primož Roglič back in 2000, but that was a COVID result, when Tao Hart was a grand tour winner. From the race profile it seems doubtful Matti could actually beat Tadej there. So yeah, a three legged stool:

Milano-Sanremo: I already wrote about this, so quickly, van der Poel leads with two wins to zero for Pogs, so obviously this race is the Dutchman’s to lose. But the stats mask just how close this competition really is. Van der Poel had to be perfect on the Poggio and count on beating Pogs in the sprint. It’s his to lose, but the margin for error is razor thin.

Ronde van Vlaanderen: Pogačar has turned the tables on van der Poel by making this his race, soloing home in their last two meetings. With his three wins, it’s van der Poel who is tied for the all-time record of Flanders successes, and he will probably break the record, but Pogačar, with his two wins and a sprint loss, might beat him to it.

That said, Pogačar’s margin of error is awfully thin too. He has won when he got rid of van der Poel at the Oude Kwaremont, a pretty handy strategy which we all saw coming this time. But this year, supposedly van der Poel was under the weather. What interval of fitness that cost him is hard to say, beyond that it was enough to see him dropped on the venerable slope. If they made it up together, it would have been Matti’s to lose, given his sprint, and given the Paterberg’s nasty, brutish, but too short profile. I wouldn’t be too bullish on a healthy vdP winning this way, but like vdP on the Poggio, Pogi has to be just about perfect on the Oude Kwaremont, or this one could get away from him.

Paris-Roubaix: This might be recency bias but I see van der Poel having a decisive advantage in Hell (talk about a legacy!). It’s only been one edition for Pogačar but he didn’t really seem like he had a chance to win. Back to full health, van der Poel spent more time turning the screws, beating Pogi at his own game, for the simple reason that the lack of rises and the rough surfaces really tilt the race away from the middle of the skill spectrum, toward the margins where the cobbles beasts ply their trade. Similarly, I wouldn’t bet the farm on van der Poel always winning, but it feels like it would take some luck to overcome Matti’s natural advantages.

I will be shocked if Pogi ever wins a fair fight against vdP here, though I have to admit to not feeling overly certain. Pogi was there all day and only blew it by smoking a turn that he entered at nearly 50kph, which seems silly of him, but such is the nature of things. This was a high-speed affair, with a tailwind upping the speed* — never overlook how much of what we are watching is on a knife’s edge. Still, we are talking five starts for vdP, three straight victories plus a podium on his first try. There seems to be nothing stopping van der Poel from matching, and maybe beating, Boonen and De Vlaeminck’s shared record of four Cobble Trophies, besides the usual bad luck.

That makes the 2025 campaign pretty chalk — American slang for “turned out like we all expected.” I guess you could call it a microcosm of the rivalry, now in its full flower. There are sure to be more dramatic twists and turns, but when it’s all done, my hunch, expressed above, is that this is roughly how it will look. This is probably the healthiest outcome, maintaining the sense that in this one phase of the season, Pogačar cannot just do whatever he wants. Pogi is four years younger, so perhaps there will be a phase of the rivalry where he closes the gap to van der Poel on his home turf. But at their peak powers, it is a true rivalry, and unless 2023 Jonas Vingegaard rejoins the conversation, it is the only rivalry Pogačar faces on his rampage through the sport. In this season of various religious holiday celebrations, we certainly have something to be thankful for.

• The 2017 Cafe’sters gathering featured a wind-aided Paris-Roubaix sportive, and I have never spent so much time giggling on a bicycle.